More "Brilliance" from evolutionary psychologists

This from : I Blame The Patriarchy

I'm so happy these pigs publish, and believe, such rubbish. They absolutely prove that men are almost always assholes. Total insanity.


New study explains women!
Published January 21st, 2009 in Junk Studies. 19 Comments

You sexually unfulfilled girls will be happy to know that your problem has been analyzed by brilliant evolutionary psychologists at the University of Newcastle who have been working round the clock to unlock the unknowable mysteries of women’s orgasmicality.

Their conclusion: You have not been boning wealthy men.

Rich dudes, quoth the sexperts, are able capitalize on women’s hardwired predisposition to be physically gratified by money, causing their partners to sexplode with greater frequency than they do when putting out for mere Joe Sixpacks.

Because the brilliant evolutionary psychologists grasp the little-known fact that all women are straight, there is no word on whether wads of cash influence the number of orgasms “gay” girls experience. Thus it is my conjecture, based on this exciting new research, that “lesbians” only exist because they were, in their formative years, unable to find rich enough guys, thus giving them the erroneous impression that sex with men was kind of gross.

[Gracias, Deana]

This from Whitehouse.Gov

If I'm going to complain, I'd better post the good stuff too:



Support for the LGBT Community

"While we have come a long way since the Stonewall riots in 1969, we still have a lot of work to do. Too often, the issue of LGBT rights is exploited by those seeking to divide us. But at its core, this issue is about who we are as Americans. It's about whether this nation is going to live up to its founding promise of equality by treating all its citizens with dignity and respect."

-- Barack Obama, June 1, 2007

* Expand Hate Crimes Statutes: In 2004, crimes against LGBT Americans constituted the third-highest category of hate crime reported and made up more than 15 percent of such crimes. President Obama cosponsored legislation that would expand federal jurisdiction to include violent hate crimes perpetrated because of race, color, religion, national origin, sexual orientation, gender identity, or physical disability. As a state senator, President Obama passed tough legislation that made hate crimes and conspiracy to commit them against the law.
* Fight Workplace Discrimination: President Obama supports the Employment Non-Discrimination Act, and believes that our anti-discrimination employment laws should be expanded to include sexual orientation and gender identity. While an increasing number of employers have extended benefits to their employees' domestic partners, discrimination based on sexual orientation in the workplace occurs with no federal legal remedy. The President also sponsored legislation in the Illinois State Senate that would ban employment discrimination on the basis of sexual orientation.
* Support Full Civil Unions and Federal Rights for LGBT Couples: President Obama supports full civil unions that give same-sex couples legal rights and privileges equal to those of married couples. Obama also believes we need to repeal the Defense of Marriage Act and enact legislation that would ensure that the 1,100+ federal legal rights and benefits currently provided on the basis of marital status are extended to same-sex couples in civil unions and other legally-recognized unions. These rights and benefits include the right to assist a loved one in times of emergency, the right to equal health insurance and other employment benefits, and property rights.
* Oppose a Constitutional Ban on Same-Sex Marriage: President Obama voted against the Federal Marriage Amendment in 2006 which would have defined marriage as between a man and a woman and prevented judicial extension of marriage-like rights to same-sex or other unmarried couples.
* Repeal Don't Ask-Don't Tell: President Obama agrees with former Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff John Shalikashvili and other military experts that we need to repeal the "don't ask, don't tell" policy. The key test for military service should be patriotism, a sense of duty, and a willingness to serve. Discrimination should be prohibited. The U.S. government has spent millions of dollars replacing troops kicked out of the military because of their sexual orientation. Additionally, more than 300 language experts have been fired under this policy, including more than 50 who are fluent in Arabic. The President will work with military leaders to repeal the current policy and ensure it helps accomplish our national defense goals.
* Expand Adoption Rights: President Obama believes that we must ensure adoption rights for all couples and individuals, regardless of their sexual orientation. He thinks that a child will benefit from a healthy and loving home, whether the parents are gay or not.
* Promote AIDS Prevention: In the first year of his presidency, President Obama will develop and begin to implement a comprehensive national HIV/AIDS strategy that includes all federal agencies. The strategy will be designed to reduce HIV infections, increase access to care and reduce HIV-related health disparities. The President will support common sense approaches including age-appropriate sex education that includes information about contraception, combating infection within our prison population through education and contraception, and distributing contraceptives through our public health system. The President also supports lifting the federal ban on needle exchange, which could dramatically reduce rates of infection among drug users. President Obama has also been willing to confront the stigma -- too often tied to homophobia -- that continues to surround HIV/AIDS.
* Empower Women to Prevent HIV/AIDS: In the United States, the percentage of women diagnosed with AIDS has quadrupled over the last 20 years. Today, women account for more than one quarter of all new HIV/AIDS diagnoses. President Obama introduced the Microbicide Development Act, which will accelerate the development of products that empower women in the battle against AIDS. Microbicides are a class of products currently under development that women apply topically to prevent transmission of HIV and other infections.


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Meanwhile, back at the economy

Layoffs continue

Bank of America may slash as much as 4,000 jobs as it absorbs Merrill Lynch, the Financial Times reported Tuesday.

The DOW closed at 7949 -- down 4%

California is in "crisis".

Citi has become worthless -- it's just a matter of time before it's allowed to die.

Banks tied to Commercial Real Estate are being choked. It's just a matter of time with some of them.

Banks dropping like stones: Citigroup (C) off 20%

JPMorgan (JPM) off 21%

Goldman Sachs (GS) off 19%

Wells Fargo (WFC) off 24%

Morgan Stanley (MS) off 16%

Some malls will begin to look like parts of Detroit -- where you can buy houses for ZERO (plus taxes and closing costs). Someone called it "urban prairie.

Let us hope there are some smart people out there. I do not want to spend my "twilight years" in a large carton

Jan.20th 2009

Here we go! I hope he knows what he's doing. It's interesting that both Byrd and Kennedy took sick at the luncheon. It really is a changing of the guard. Out with the old -- in with the new.

It's a post-boomer era, folks to whom the New Deal, or the Great Society are just words on a page. Folks who know the 60's and 70's through books and music, losing the flavor and fervor of the era. Reading revisionist histories that ignore the real achievements, and the promise of that era.

We've lost a major part of our history. Let us hope the "kids" can move this great experiment forward.

"Freedom and justice for all" would be a nice thing.

Fix It Again Tony (Fiat)

The Wall Street Journal reports that Fiat may take control of Chrysler.

What could be better?

This from The WSJ:



JANUARY 20, 2009

Fiat Nears Stake in Chrysler That Could Lead to Takeover

By STACY MEICHTRY in Rome and JOHN STOLL in Detroit

In an attempt to revive two of the world's storied auto makers, Italy's Fiat SpA and Chrysler LLC are poised to announce a partnership as soon as today in which Fiat could take control of the U.S. company's operations, people familiar with the matter said.

Under terms of a pact that is being hammered out, Fiat is likely to take a 35% stake in Chrysler by the middle of this year. It would have the option of increasing that to as much as 55%, these people said.

Fiat, the stronger of the two, wouldn't immediately put cash into Chrysler. Instead it would obtain its stake mainly in exchange for covering the cost of retooling a Chrysler plant to produce one or more Fiat models to be sold in the U.S., these people said. Fiat would also provide engine and transmission technology to help Chrysler introduce new, fuel-efficient small cars, they said.
[Chart]

The deal is the latest maneuver by Fiat's chief, Sergio Marchionne, who has pulled the Italian company back from the brink collapse since taking over in 2004.

The partnership would provide each company with economies of scale and geographical reach at a time when both are struggling to compete with larger and more global rivals like Toyota Motor Corp., Volkswagen AG and the alliance of Renault SA and Nissan Motor Co.

Chrysler last year sold two million cars and trucks world-wide, with almost all of its sales in North America. Fiat sold 2.5 million vehicles and is heavily dependent on Europe -- particularly its home market in Italy.

While Fiat has a wider global reach than Chrysler, the two auto makers are smaller players compared to their global rivals. Toyota and General Motors, for instance, each have sold more than nine million vehicles annually.

Chrysler spokeswoman Lori McTavish said, "In today's economic environment, talks are going on between companies in all industries -- ours is no different."

The pact with Fiat could give Chrysler a stronger case as it seeks more loans from the U.S. government. Chrysler nearly ran out of money late last year, before the Treasury Department provided $4 billion in emergency loans, and has suffered a steep drop in sales in the past three months. The auto maker needs to show it can remain a viable business by March to keep those loans and to qualify for the $3 billion in additional government aid it says it needs.

Last week, a vocal critic of Chrysler, Sen. Bob Corker (R., Tenn.) said the company needs to "merge or go away." A Chrysler official declined to comment on Sen. Corker's remark.

Kimberly Rodriquez, an automotive consultant at Detroit-based advisory firm Grant Thornton, said Chrysler has little choice but to find an alliance. "Without further funding, they don't survive with the level of sales and cash they have right now," she said in a telephone interview.

Working with Fiat could complicate a separate partnership Chrysler arranged last year with Nissan. Chrysler is supposed to start making pickup trucks in a few years that Nissan would sell in the U.S., and Nissan has agreed to make compact cars for Chrysler -- vehicles that potentially could compete with any small cars Fiat provides to Chrysler.

Chrysler and Nissan have discussed joining in a broader alliance, and top executives of the two companies spoke as recently as last week, a person familiar with the matter said. But Carlos Ghosn, chief executive of Nissan and Renault, is wary of any deal that would require Nissan to put money into Chrysler, a person familiar with Mr. Ghosn's thinking said.

A Nissan spokesman said the company intends to maintain its supply relationship with Chrysler "in the same spirit we do with the many other automakers we have similar arrangements with."
More

* Fiat CEO Builds Record Of Bold Strategic Moves

The tentative terms Fiat and Chrysler have worked out would call for Chrysler's owners, Cerberus Capital Management LP and Daimler AG, to retain stakes in the U.S. car maker, people familiar with the discussions said. Cerberus will see its 80.1% stake diluted. It is unclear whether Daimler will want to keep its entire 19.9% stake.

A Daimler spokesman said he couldn't immediately comment on the matter.

News of the partnership was previously reported by Automotive News, a trade publication.

The potential alliance will need the blessing of Fiat's founding family, the Agnellis. The family, which holds a 30% controlling stake in Fiat, has said in the past that to stay competitive, Fiat needed to link up with a larger rival.

Fiat's board is likely to discuss the potential deal with Chrysler when it meets Thursday to approve third-quarter results, one person familiar with the matter said.

The Fiat deal would effectively end an attempt by Cerberus to resurrect the troubled U.S. auto maker that began in 2007. Chrysler merged with Daimler in 1998 to form DaimlerChrysler AG, but the marriage ended in part amid concerns that the U.S. arm was a drag on earnings.

Cerberus snapped up Chrysler with the promise it could speed product development and other decisions thanks to its status as a private company. To come up with cash to fund its ambitions, Cerberus had Chrysler mortgage almost all of its plants and other assets to raise $12 billion in loans from a group of banks led by J.P. Morgan, Goldman Sachs and Citigroup.

Then, in the spring of 2008, gasoline prices soared to $4 a gallon and sales of Chrysler's most profitable trucks and SUVs plunged.

Scrambling to save cash, Chrysler slowed development of new vehicles. At the North American International Auto Show, which opened last week in Detroit, Chrysler didn't show a single vehicle that will be launched in 2009.

Chrysler's troubles worsened last fall when the meltdown on Wall Street hit. In the second half of 2008, the company used up $10 billion in cash, forcing it to seek help from the U.S. government. As part of the deal with Fiat, Chrysler is supposed to restructure the $9 billion in debt it still has on its books, people familiar with the matter said.

While the private-equity firm and its investors likely will lose billions on the Chrysler deal, Cerberus would possibly face an even bigger hit if forced to put Chrysler in Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection or continue running the auto maker amid the deep slump in the U.S. auto industry.

It is Cerberus's latest investment to be crushed by the auto-industry slowdown. In 2006, Cerberus paid billions for a controlling stake in GMAC LLC, the finance arm for GM. But Cerberus eventually had to agree to unload much of its stake in order to receive a bailout for the troubled lender late last year.

Fiat is also facing challenges. Analysts have long doubted whether it has the scale to survive as an independent manufacturer of small cars. Small vehicles have relatively thin profit margins.

Fiat has for months been exploring ways to gain a foothold in North America, hunting for a partner that could manufacture its Fiat 500 mini model and re-launch its high-end Alfa Romeo brand in the U.S.

Most analysts say Chrysler has little hope of surviving as a standalone company. Amid a rash of mergers in recent decades, and the rise of well-funded newcomers in China and India, the auto industry is dominated by multinational players that can quickly move production and engineering from region to region.
—Jeff Bennett and Jeff McCracken contributed to this article.

Write to Stacy Meichtry at stacy.meichtry@wsj.com and John Stoll at john.stoll@wsj.com

What Promise?

The "promise" of Obama does not seem to include the LGBTQ, etc., etc. communities.

We are not included as a part of anyone's agenda. Fend for ourselves is what we must do. As always, we only get movement when we make a pain in the ass of ourselves.

Obama neither respects nor understands us -- nor does he seem to want to.

Once again, we will have to demonstrate, make pests of ourselves, boycott, act up, act out.

Look at what folks do -- and -- what they say.

They are already killing us. Comb the news reports, LGBT folks are being killed at what appears to be an ever increasing rate. It's time to think of self defense. It's time to understand things are getting worse -- and with the economic downturn, they will get worse yet.

Act as if your life and future are at stake -- remember: "Silence = Death"

Gene Robinson WHO??

I watched the Pre-Inaugural-Bash on HBO today. You know, the one where The Good-Gay-Bishop (who seemed to designate himself a spokesperson for the entire LGBT community by his comments) was going to do the "really important invocation".

Only one little problem -- HBO did not broadcast any of it. Nor, it appears, did anyone else.

So, the "really-important-invocation" was not seen by many folks --- and, according to reports, there seem to have been some "sound problems", cause folks said they couldn't hear him either.

Nor was the lovely gay-men's-chorus ID'ed. Thank @#$ they wore their red ribbons.

Is this considered "backing up the bus", like that woman in Houston did to her husband -- "accidentally" running him over three times?

Violence due to economic crisis

This from "Common Sense Forecaster". I find the response to protests rather interesting. Can you imagine such a response here -- in the "Home Of The Free (TM)"?


Violence Due to the Economic Crisis

In December the head of the IMF warned about widespread civil unrest due to the deteriorating economic situation across the globe. There have already been problems in Greece, Russia, and China in the last several months. Now there are problems in Latvia and Bulgaria. I am no expert on the politics of these countries and I certainly do not profess any special knowledge about this situation, but the civil unrest in certain countries is just part of the unfolding tapestry of the economic crisis. We'll see how things go. Text in bold is my emphasis. From the NY Times:

Violent protests over political grievances and mounting economic woes shook the Latvian capital, Riga, late Tuesday, leaving around 25 people injured and leading to 106 arrests.

Officers cleared demonstrators on Wednesday in Sofia, Bulgaria. Several countries have faced protests over economic issues.

A protester faced riot police officers on Tuesday in Riga, Latvia. About 25 people were injured when the rally turned violent.

In the wake of the demonstrations, President Valdis Zatlers threatened Wednesday to call for a referendum that would allow voters to dissolve Parliament, saying trust in the government, including in its ability to deal with growing economic problems, had “collapsed catastrophically.”

For years, Latvia boasted of double-digit economic growth rates, but it has been shaken by the global economic downturn. Its central bank has spent a fifth of its reserves to guard against a steep devaluation of its currency, the lat, and experts expect a 5 percent contraction of the country’s gross domestic product in 2009. Salaries are expected to fall substantially, and unemployment is expected to rise.

The violence followed days of clashes in Greece last month over a number of issues, including economic stagnation and rising poverty as well as widespread corruption and a troubled education system. In Bulgaria on Wednesday, separate riots broke out in the capital, Sofia, after more than 2,000 people — including students, farmers and environmental activists — demonstrated in front of Parliament over economic conditions, Reuters reported.

Mr. Zatlers has long been aligned with the governing coalition, so his threat to dissolve Parliament came as a surprise — and was testament to nervousness about how economic troubles in the region could intersect with simmering political grievances.

The rioting broke out Tuesday after around 10,000 people protested in historic Dome Square over the economic troubles and grievances involving corruption and competence of the government.

Several hundred protesters lingered after most of the crowd had left and started throwing snowballs and cobblestones at government buildings.

Several demonstrators also threw Molotov cocktails, according to Mareks Mattisons, a spokesman for Latvia’s Interior Ministry. In a public statement on Wednesday, President Zatlers denounced the violence, but said it was more important to ask “why people gathered in Dome Square.”

“We must not face further confrontation, we must do the things that are demanded by the public,” he said. “I refer to constitutional amendments, a plan to stimulate the economy, and reform of the national system of governance.”

Krisjanis Karins, a member of Parliament and former leader of the opposition New Era party, said the violence showed that financial woes had injected a new vehemence into old political complaints.

Protests in Latvia, he said, tended to follow a pattern of “standing, singing and just going home,” but the young protesters who showed up on Tuesday evening “seem to think the Greek or French way of expressing anger is better,” he said.

“In our neck of the woods, this just doesn’t happen,” he said. “But it did this time. Everyone is trying to figure out how much of this was provoked. Who are these people? Where did they come from?”

Whatever the answer, he said, Tuesday’s protests seem likely to force political change.

“In six months, we’re going to look back and yesterday will be a watershed,” he said. “I would be deeply surprised if it were not.”

President Zatlers made a series of strict demands of the Parliament, including a constitutional amendment that would allow voters to dismiss Parliament, and a new supervisory council to oversee economic development and the state’s use of loans.

He called for “new faces in the government,” chosen for competence rather than “their influence in the relevant party.” He said the changes must be made by March 31, or else he would propose a referendum that could dissolve Parliament.

“Only with such specific work can we calm the public down and offer at least a bit of hope that the process in this country will develop in a favorable direction,” he said

Mitzie

My profile says I have "varied interests" -- yet, it seems all I blog about is the economy, or my anger toward the current regime.

Did I ever mention we have Cats?

Of course we have Cats.

Are you surprised?

Every one has been rescued from a shelter. Every one has had "issues". Every one is happier now than they were when we adopted them. I guess "three hots and a cot" along with feline friends, lots of pettage, and good medical care will do that.

Some are "special needs" cats.

I'll tell you one story.

We saw Mitzie online at the Siamese rescue site. She was from a cattery (I think "kitten mill") in Montreal, Canada. She is a very pretty Black Oriental Shorthair -- her health papers were in french, and she was / is very skittish. In fact she will not allow you to approach her -- look at her and she runs away. It seems she was never socialized. It appears she was kept in a cage, and her only function was to have kittens. I guess her only contact with bipeds were very frightening. She was not feral, she was a prisoner - used to make money for others. She gets along with the other Cats, has close cat friends -- and, after four years seems to understand we will not harm her.

Every so often her need for pettage is so great she wakes one of us up in the middle of the night and DEMANDS to be petted. She hurls her body against you until you respond. Gets petted , scratched, and cuddled until we both fall asleep -- but -- if you sit up in bed -- she's gone.

Mitzie (actual name Mitsuko) walks like a supermodel, is sleek and graceful. Most Cats lie down very gracefully. They seem to flow -- Mitzie plops. It's as if she falls over, yet she does everything else so smoothly. I wonder if it's connected to living in a cage for so long?

She never comes to us, never sat in a lap, never wants our attention.

She does have friends -- at the same time she does not like Lily -- our Senior Lilac Point Siamese who has health issues. It seems that Lily really might have been a cat "supermodel" in her youth. She is still very slender, well formed. Mitz has put on a couple of pounds, and is no longer in "catwalk" shape. They have "issues" with each other. Of late they have avoided contact. That's a good thing.

We think another four or five years and she might just let us touch her. She is getting more accustomed to having us in her home, and we are happy to have given her some stability in her life.

It's a good thing.

Some more news for "The Bulls"

Circuit City Stores, the nation's second-biggest consumer electronics retailer, reached an agreement with liquidators on Friday to sell the merchandise in its 567 U.S. stores after failing to find a buyer or a refinancing deal.

Circuit City
Mel Evans / AP


The company, which employs more than 30,000 employees, said in court papers it has appointed Great American Group, Hudson Capital Partners, SB Capital Group and Tiger Capital Group as liquidators.

Calls to the Richmond, Va.-based company and the liquidators were not immediately returned.

Circuit City [CCTYQ 0.038 -0.112 (-74.67%) ] filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection in November as vendors started to restrict the flow of merchandise ahead of the busy holiday shopping season.

* CNBC's Margaret Brennan breaks news of the pending liquidation.

It had been exploring strategic alternatives since May, when it opened its books to Blockbuster. The Dallas-based movie-rental chain made a takeover bid of more than $1 billion with plans to create a 9,300-store chain to sell electronic gadgets and rent movies and games. Blockbuster withdrew the bid in July because of market conditions.

More recently, it was suspected that Golden Gate Capital, a San Francisco private equity firm, may have purchased the retailer, but it was unable to raise funds for the purchase, sources told CNBC.

Circuit City, which said it had $3.4 billion in assets and $2.32 billion in liabilities as of Aug. 31, said in its initial filings that it planned to emerge from court protection in the first half of this year.

Under court protection, Circuit City has broken 150 leases at locations where it no longer operates stores. The company already closed 155 stores in the U.S. in November and December.

U.S. Bankruptcy Judge Kevin Huennekens had given the company permission to liquidate if a buyout was not achieved.

-CNBC's Margaret Brennan contributed to this report

Rick Warren - Frightening video

Denial

It appears most of our leaders -- including most Democrats -- are in a state of denial about the problems facing our economy.

I'm afraid our "leaders" are far too insulated from the problems facing what's left of "The Middle Class", and "The New Poor" (former middle class).

The need to tap credit sources just to stay even in the face of raising costs and falling wages is being characterized as "sinful", "irresponsible", or "stupid" -- in the parlance of those still doing well, it is "loser behavior".

I find it interesting how many former "winners" have become "losers". Many of "The New Losers" are such true believers they buy into the entire concept. They don't seem capable of understanding that they are being affected by economic realities totally out of their control. They are still anti-union, anti universal health care, anti bailouts for the middle class, anti almost any government action that would benefit them. Many still demonize "the immigrants" -- esp Mexican and Central American -- with little concern over H1B Visas and just some grumbling about outsourcing.

As early as 2003, folks on H1B Visas have taken about 60,000 American jobs -- replacing scads of network engineers, etc. -- the very jobs folks were told to train for in the "new" economy.

Lack of power, lack of collective action, left these folks truly powerless. Many thought they were above the very IDEA of unionization -- and so were totally powerless against the power of our corporations.

The very idea of "the commons", "the common good", of people working together to improve life for everyone has been lost. Even the proper function of government has been corrupted (in every way possible).

For us to have a true recovery our entire population would have to be re-educated. Quite a few folks today do not even see infrastructure - public roads, bridges, etc. as a proper function of the "gubmint". They believe the lie that private enterprise is "more efficient" -- even though the experience folks have with HMO's should have proved that to be a lie. For us to have a real recovery, we need an overhaul of our values and basic premises.

Depression

This from Reuters:

Societe Generale said on Thursday that the United States' economy looks likely to enter a depression and China's could implode.

In a highly bearish note, veteran cross asset strategist Albert Edwards said investors should now cut equity exposure after a turn-of-the-year rally and prepare for a rout.
...
"While economic data in developed economies increasingly reflects depression rather than a deep recession, the real surprise in 2009 may lie elsewhere," Edwards wrote.

"It is becoming clear that the Chinese economy is imploding and this raises the possibility of regime change. To prevent this, the authorities would likely devalue the yuan. A subsequent trade war could see a re-run of the Great Depression."

Edwards has long been one of the most bearish analysts in London, first with Dresdner Kleinwort and then with SocGen.

But he called in October for clients to increase their exposure to equities, which he said were due a rebound.

A target of 500 for the S&P 500 was cited - this represents a decline of another 40 percent from current levels, down almost 70 percent from the 2007 highs.

This From "When Giants Fall"

January 13, 2009
Sign of the Times

Not long ago, it would have been career suicide for a Wall Street operator to publicly admit that he (or she) was hunkering down for a Mad Max kind of future.

What a difference a year makes.

Nowadays, as the following New York magazine report, entitled "The New Paranoia: Hedge-Funders Are Bullish on Gold, Guns, and Inflatable Lifeboats," seems to suggest, it's a sign of the times.

During the final months of 2008, as the financial markets imploded, talk on trading desks turned to food and water stockpiles, generators, guns, and high-speed inflatable boats. “The system really was about six hours from failing,” says Gene Lange, a manager at a midtown hedge fund, referring to the week in September when Lehman went bust and AIG had to be bailed out. “When you think about how close we were to the precipice, I don’t think it necessarily makes a guy crazy to prepare for the potential worst-case scenario.”

Preparations, in Lange’s case, include a storeroom in his basement in New Jersey stacked high with enough food, water, diapers, and other necessities to last his family six months; a biometric safe to hold his guns; and a 1985 ex-military Chevy K5 Blazer that runs on diesel and is currently being retrofitted for off-road travel. He has also entertained the idea of putting an inflatable speedboat in a storage unit on the West Side, so he could get off the island quickly, and is currently considering purchasing a remote farm where he could hunker down. “If there’s a financial-system breakdown, it could take a year to reset the system, and in that time, what’s going to happen?” asks Lange. If New York turns into a scene out of I Am Legend, he wants to be ready.

He’s not the only one. In his book Wealth, War, published last year, former Morgan Stanley chief global strategist Barton Biggs advised people to prepare for the possibility of a total breakdown of civil society. A senior analyst whose reports are read at hedge funds all over the city wrote just before Christmas that some of his clients are “so bearish they’ve purchased firearms and safes and are stocking their pantries with soups and canned foods.” This fear is very much reflected in the market—prices of corporate bonds have been so beaten down at various points that they suggest a higher default rate than during the Great Depression. Meanwhile, while the overall gold market has fluctuated, the premium for quarter-ounce gold coins—meaning the difference between the rice for gold you can hold in your hand and that for “paper gold,” such as exchange-traded funds—rose to an all-time high of 20 percent. “Gold is transportable, it’s 100 percent liquid, and it’s perfectly divisible in the context of ounces, bars, or coins,” says the head of a California research firm who keeps a supply of it, along with food, water, and guns, on hand. “And most important, there’s no counterparty”—i.e., it’s an investment beholden to no one, and perhaps one of the few assets that will retain value if the financial system collapses.

While it may look like these Wall Streeters are betting on such a collapse, their embrace of survivalism is an outgrowth of their professional habits of mind: Having observed the economy’s shaky high-wire act from their ringside seats, they are trying to manage their risk and “hedge” against a potential fall. “It’s like insurance,” says an investor who has stockpiled MREs and a hand-cranked radio. “And by the time you need it, it’s way too late.” Leave it for others to weep for the collapse of the social order. These guys would prefer to be in a high-speed boat or ex-military vehicle, heading off toward their fully provisioned compounds in pursuit of the ultimate goal: to win the chaos.

Bishop Robinson

This in from the AP:

My first reaction is, Who gives a damn? It was the lack of thought, inviting Warren that counts. That invitation, as with his appearance with McClurkin, shows Obama doesn't have a clue. McClurkin compares gay folks with "drug dealers and gang members" -- this in Barbados. Warren is tied in with folks in Africa who burn condoms. I honestly do not see that as being "pro-active" about AIDS. This Robinson thing is too little, too late. It's like building the Memorial after the homophobes kill you -- again, "too little, too late".



Gay NH Bishop to Offer Prayer at Inaugural Event

Monday 12 January 2009

by: The Associated Press


Concord, New Hampshire - The first openly gay Episcopal bishop will offer a prayer at the Lincoln Memorial at an inaugural event for President-elect Barack Obama.

The selection of New Hampshire Episcopal Bishop Gene Robinson for Sunday's event follows weeks of criticism from gay-rights groups over Obama's decision to have the Rev. Rick Warren give the invocation at his Jan. 20 inauguration.

Warren backed the ban on same-sex marriage that passed in his home state of California on the November ballot.

Robinson said last month the choice of Warren was like a slap in the face. In an interview with the Concord Monitor, he said he doesn't believe Obama invited him in response to the Warren criticism but said his inclusion won't go unnoticed by the gay and lesbian community.

"It's important for any minority to see themselves represented in some way," Robinson told the newspaper for a story in Monday's editions. "Whether it be a racial minority, an ethnic minority, or in our case, a sexual minority. Just seeing someone like you up front matters."

Clark Stevens, a spokesman for the inaugural committee, said Robinson was invited because he had offered his advice to Obama during the campaign and because of his church work. When asked whether Robinson was included to calm the Warren complaints, he said Robinson is "an important figure in the religious community. We are excited that he will be involved."

Robinson, 61, said both Obama and Vice President-elect Joe Biden will attend the event, and Obama is expected to speak. As for himself, Robinson said he doesn't yet know what he'll say, but he knows he won't use a Bible.

"While that is a holy and sacred text to me, it is not for many Americans," Robinson said. "I will be careful not to be especially Christian in my prayer. This is a prayer for the whole nation."

Robinson said his prayer will be reflective of the times.

"I think these are sober and difficult times that we are facing," he said. "It won't be a happy, clappy prayer."

Robinson's 2003 consecration has divided the church in the United States and abroad. Last month, theological conservatives upset by liberal views of U.S. Episcopalians and Canadian Anglicans formed a rival North American province.

"Pirates Not What They Seem To Be

This from Discovery News -- Earth Impacts



Pirates & Radioactive Waste


Here's a revealing article that rings true to me. The infamous Somalian pirates are not what they seem and the genuine criminals are not who you'd expect. Bottom line: Somalia's anarchy is being exploited not by the pirates but by other nations. The Somalian waters, coastal areas, people and wildlife are paying a horrible price as organized crime, to name just one exploiter, dumps radioactive waste from Europe in the lawless Somalian seas. Seems the mainstream media has missed this bigger story entirely.

Republicans Hate America

Isn't it time to ask why the Republicans Hate America?

That's exactly what they did the moment any Democrat criticized Bush.

We were called "Traitors", and every name under the Sun.

Now that their policies have brought us to the brink of full fledged Depression they're trying to sabotage every attempt to bring us back to financial health.

I guess they really do Hate America.

At FiveThirtyEight.com, Nate Silver has a post titled, "Intellectual Dishonesty (Gasp!) from a Conservative Economist".

He goes on to -- well, let me quote the opening paragraph: "I've referred you guys to Greg Mankiw on a couple of different occasions. He is a highly-respected economist at Harvard University who was the head of the outgoing President Bush's Council of Economic Advisers. Mankiw is a pretty good benchmark for "smart" conservative economic thought -- which, being a University of Chicago economics grad, I have a healthy degree of respect for. If Mankiw's article in today's New York Times is any indication, however, the conservatives are out of good reasons for opposing Barack Obama's stimulus."

For the rest, just go to the source and read the article.

Good stuff.

As one commentor said, "Ideology can drive an otherwise rational person to destroy the very thing he supposedly loves... some conservatives would rather see the country suffer than let people see someone else help it....".

So, Conservatives hate any vision of America that does not jibe with their "vision" -- even if it works.

This from AMERICAblog

" Saturday, January 10, 2009
Robert Rubin resigns from Citigroup

Please tell me this doesn't mean he's lining himself up to join the already right wing economic team of the Obama administration. It already looks as though Obama has hired everyone who used to work for Rubin (including Summers and Geithner) so nothing would be a shock at this point. Rubin's best Bart Simpson "I didn't do it" shtick was wearing thin as Citi's fortunes crumbled and he claimed to have no idea what was going on despite sitting on its board. We really could have used a fresh new team to deal with this economy but apparently change will have to wait for another administration."


Why has "change" turned into more "same old, same old"?

After supporting Hillary I got on the Obama bandwagon, hoping it wasn't just talk. Right now, I'm afraid it was just talk. I also think Mr. Obama has gotten to a point where he actually believes his own hype.

Can you say HUBRIS??

good day

I've been a bit depressed for the last few days. I'm really disappointed in the "Obama Team" -- Homophobe Kaine as DNC Chair, retreads in treasury -- and running most of the bailout plans. The "bailout" itself, which seems to have been developed by conservative Republicans. Add to that Gupta and his anti-single-payer-stance (or so it seems). I'm amazed the MD's don't realize they would have been better off working for the government than the current system where they are just minor cogs in the huge machinery of the insurance companies. Today it's NOT about health care -- it's about PROFIT.

The MURDER of Oscar Grant. The shooting of a young man in Houston, Robbie Tolan -- IN HIS OWN DRIVEWAY (it seems he was living in a WHITE neighborhood, so the SUV he was driving MUST have been stolen) -- The "friendly neighborhood police" also pinned his mom up against the garage door.

All stuff to bring good cheer this new year.

Anyway, yesterday, Suzy and I went to the Arlington Outdoor Show. Lots of fishing tackle, boats, etc. Spent a long time chatting with some folks local to our home area, laughed, had fun.

They had a display of Raptors there -- amazing BIG (and small) birds of prey. The guy running it was originally from Long Island -- so we chatted a bit. When he did his show, I got to hold an African Tiger Owl (I think it's the largest Owl), and Suzy took our picture. It was amazing.

So far a good day.

After the show, we went to a little Pizza Place (Campania) down in an area they call "West Village" -- Sort of an "Urban Lifestyle" area -- without the URBAN.

It's clean and neat, with lots of young people, trendy restaurants, an "artsy" Cinema, cute shops, etc., etc., etc. I know it sounds horrible -- but it's not that different from the N.Y. Eastside scene of years past. Lot's of young folks mingling, some dating -- it's not that different from a dog park -- except there is less overt butt sniffing - otherwise, pretty much the same.

After Pizza, we went for some awesome (first time I've used THAT word on this blog) gelato. Just wonderful -- and it was warm enough to eat that wonderful Gelato outdoors.

We went fishing the day before, caught our dinner, had lots of fun.

These last two days have pretty much snapped me out of my doldrums.

I know Obama will be a horrible disappointment. I'm beginning to think he is part of a plan to continue the destruction of our Constitution -- Ronnie Raygun did his part, as has every President that followed him.

One major minority group will support Obama to the end. After all, he is one of theirs. It is a truly historic Presidency, a long overdue breakthrough. The African-American HAVE to support him. They have to wish him the very best, hold out hope for his success. LGBT folks can continue to be scapegoated, the huge financial inequality we have developed can continue. Socialism for the rich can be continued, and our dive into "Third World Nationhood" can gain momentum.

In spite of all this stuff -- I had a good two days -- watched young folks playing, had some good food, great conversation, met some unique creatures.

Anyway, I'll be 70 in April -- most of the crap you will go through will not affect me.

Perhaps you guys should be concerned -- as for me, I have to stop taking this stuff so seriously -- after all, it's just life and death.

The Killing of Oscar Grant

He was shot and killed on New Years Day. He was restrained, on his stomach, when a BART cop shot him in the back.

Where is the "Main Stream Media"?

"India's Enron"

Some are calling the accounting scandal in India, "India's Enron". Satyam Computer Services falsely inflated profits for years. Today their shares tumbled 80%.

I guess we taught them well.

Soon they might well be outsourcing work to the USA - an emerging third world country.

Headlines

# Specialty chains see dismal December: SpendingPulse "- 1 hour ago"U.S. retailers experienced a dismal December, as a year-long recession and winter storms kept many potential shoppers at home, according to data released on Wednesday by SpendingPulse.

# Food stamp outlays $50 billion due to recession: CBO "- 1 hour ago"The U.S. recession will drive the cost of the food stamp program, which helps poor people buy food, to $50 billion this year, up 27 percent from 2008, congressional forecasters said on Wednesday.

# Apartment rents show first decline in over 5 years "- 13 hours ago"Average rents for U.S. apartments fell in the fourth quarter, as a sharp economic downturn and rising unemployment left Americans unwilling to pay higher prices, according to data released on Wednesda...

# Vacancies at regional malls rise as economy reels "- 10 hours ago"Vacancies at regional malls in the United States rose in the fourth quarter to their highest levels of the decade, according to data released on Wednesday by real estate research firm Reis Inc.

# $1.2 Trillion Deficit Forecast as Obama Weighs Options "- 38 minutes ago"Barack Obama said that changes in Social Security and Medicare will be central to efforts to bring federal spending in line.
.
# Stocks Slide on Earnings Gloom "- 33 minutes ago"The Dow fell 2.7 percent as reports from Time Warner, Intel and Alcoa foreshadowed a bleak season for fourth-quarter earnings.

# Court Filing Details Items Madoff Sent "- 1 hour ago"Bernard L. Madoff violated his bail agreement by sending jewelry to his friends and family, prosecutors argued.

# Satyam Chief Admits Huge Fraud "- 1 hour ago"


Now, how many think 2009 will be a "rosy" year of strong recovery?

All the economic news sucks -- and, we haven't yet seen the full extent of the commercial real estate crash.

By the way, how many major retail chains will restructure in 2009?

How many will liquidate?

I Had A Dream

No, not the MLK one. Not even a positive one. My dream was of a dystopia -- a "hell on earth" -- except for the very rich.

It was of a "post industrial age". A time when we proles won't be needed by the wealthy.

All the pots, pans, widgets that will ever be needed are already made. There will be some LIMITED basic research, manufacturing, for the wealthy -- the rest of us will make do with what is still around. As you can tell -- this was a dream -- so a lot of the stuff is not well thought out. At the same time, depression, starvation, wars (limited, of course), could cut population by some billions. If worked correctly, most of the religious fanatics - east, west, north, and south could be killed off. With this plan, they might not need religion to control the masses -- it really has gotten a bit unwieldy -- don't you think?

Looking around at the world today -- the lack of education that seems purposeful, the total lack of critical thinking, the real dumbing down of mass culture -- the "master plan" seems to be in full swing.

Huge urban areas will no longer be needed -- anyway they are just a huge bother, what with the freedom that is usually found in cities, the lack of strict social control found in villages and small towns (why do you think the trend has been to demonize urban areas -- people get some "strange ideas" there -- so, starve them, let them rot, destroy their education system, let them sink into the earth}.

They are "evil". "Those" people live there. People in cities are too "independent". Let them self destroy.

Small towns, villages are places where "anti-social" behavior can be picked out, and "nipped in the bud".

Welcome to the "new serfdom". They've already convinced folks unions are "bad". Some folks know they are being screwed -- yet, they cannot even imagine any way to get out from under. They claim to be "rugged individuals" -- while they do what they're told, cannot imagine a way to break free, and live in self imposed misery. The time to assert their rights against the power of the wealthy is fast coming to an end.

The joke is that the wealthy act collectively -- while we proles are taught to be "rugged individuals" -- IE: POWERLESS.

Anyway, it was just a stupid dream.

THIS JUST IN

A little something from Reuters:

"
Reuters
European data grim


By Will Waterman – 1 hr 17 mins ago

LONDON (Reuters) – Dire economic data underlined the severity of recession in Europe on Tuesday, while Toyota Motor Corp said it would halt all production in Japan in response to plunging demand.

With the global downturn hitting automakers particularly hard, Toyota, the world's biggest, said it would shut all its factories in Japan for 11 days over February and March.

And as a further indication of how the crisis that began with bad housing loans in the U.S. has reached all parts of the world, a state-run Chinese magazine warned that rising social unrest would follow.

In Europe a sharper than expected fall in euro zone inflation to a 26-month low of 1.6 percent in December knocked back the euro and further supported expectations for a European Central Bank (ECB) rate cut next week.

ECB rate cut expectations were also boosted by data showing the euro zone private sector services economy shrank sharply in December and firms cut more jobs than expected, pointing to a deep recession lasting for a good part of 2009.

The Markit Eurozone Purchasing Managers' Index of about 2,000 services companies, from banks to retailers, fell to 42.1 in December from 42.5 a month ago, a new low in the survey's 10-year history.

"Sharply contracting new orders, backlogs of work and employment reinforce belief that the euro zone faces an extremely difficult start to 2009," said Howard Archer, economist at IHS Global Insight.

The euro plunged against the dollar to $1.3347 from $1.3440 in response to the data.

A services sector survey for the UK also showed an eighth month of contraction, with the employment component dropping to a record low, while UK retailers warned that rising job losses and plunging house prices would blight trading for months.

Adding to Europe's economic woes, a gas pricing dispute between Moscow and Kiev threatened supplies to the continent as Russian gas via Ukraine to southeast Europe and Turkey was halted, pushing U.S. crude oil prices up $1.50 to $50.33 a barrel, and British gas market prices up more than 10 percent.

Flows were cut to Bulgaria, Turkey, Macedonia, Greece and Croatia, while Italy, Austria and the Czech Republic reported sharp falls. European energy firms receive about a fifth of their gas via pipelines through Ukraine.

STIMULUS PLANS

But European and Asian shares rose for their sixth and seventh straight sessions respectively, and the dollar climbed as investors anticipated an economic stimulus package of up to 50 billion euros ($67.4 billion) in Germany and an expected $775 billion bill from U.S. President-elect Barack Obama.

The South Korean government also said on Tuesday it aimed to create almost 142,000 jobs this year through infrastructure and environmental projects, part of a five-year, $38 billion plan to generate almost 1 million jobs.

"Growing expectations for the administration of Obama are making investors that much more willing to take risks, and I think we're also seeing more buying by foreign investors," said Hideyuki Ishiguro, supervisor at the investment advisory department of Okasan Securities in Tokyo.

MSCI's All-Country World stock index has jumped 25 percent since a five-year low in late November.

POOR DATA

Market optimism is running ahead of economic indicators, however, which remain poor.

Britain's Nationwide Building Society said house prices in the world's fifth-biggest economy fell another 2.5 percent in December, making 2008 the worst year on record.

Consumer morale slumped in December in both Britain and France on fears of rising unemployment, which along with tight credit have particularly hit car sales across the globe.

Figures on Monday showed that auto sales in the U.S. fell 36 percent in December, closing out the weakest year since 1992 in the world's biggest market, where Toyota saw its worst monthly sales decline since at least 1980.

The company, having already announced a three-day suspension at domestic plants this month and warned of its first-ever annual operating loss, said it would halt output at 12 vehicle and parts plants in Japan for six days next month and five in March.

In China, which relies on strong growth to create jobs for its millions of migrant workers and graduates, state-run Outlook (Liaowang) Magazine said on Tuesday that rising unemployment in 2009 threatened an upsurge in protests and riots.

"Without doubt, now we're entering a peak period for mass incidents," Huang Ho, a reporter from state news agency Xinhua, told the magazine.

Though researchers at the country's central bank forecast China's economy would grow 8 percent this year, many independent analysts' predictions are substantially lower.

(Additional reporting by Reuters bureaux worldwide; Editing by Richard Hubbard)

The Ponzi Scheme Presidency

TomDispatch has posted "The Ponzi Scheme Presidency" by Tom Engelhardt:


He describes the "War on Terror" as a "Ponzi Scheme". It's just another indictment of the Bush Administration.

at wits end

I'm almost unable to write anything right now. I've been reading various op-eds and editorials where it seems as if they've taken up Phil Gramm's cry of "whiners". Then there are others who seem to think we've hit "bottom", and everything is on the way up.

In addition, it appears that Obama is going to use 300 billion in tax cuts as a part of his "stimulus program" -- and all the while I thought his "middle class tax cuts" were an issue in themselves. I thought the vaunted "stimulus package" was in addition to needed middle class cuts -- as an answer to the recession.

Then again, there are still Republicans who deny there really is a recession.

These little tid-bits are followed by news like this from The Wall Street Journal:

"US Auto Sales Continue To Skid

Ford Motor Co. posted a 32% drop in U.S. light-vehicle sales for December while Toyota Motor Co. reported a 37% fall and Honda Motor Co. had a 35% decline, closing out the auto industry's worst year in more than 15 years."

In addition GM's light vehicle sales are down 31% from last December.

Does that look like we've "turned the corner"?

The Hotel Industry looks like it's going bust: LA Times "Hoteliers see too much room at the inn".

In addition, Commercial Real Estate appears to be crashing: N.Y.Times: "As Vacant Office Space Grows, So Does Lenders’ Crisis."

The Wall Street Journal is calling for a loooong recession. At the same time, Republicans are saying we do not need any stimulus - except for banks and brokers (the folks who got us in trouble in the first place.

Even Paul Krugman appears to be suffering from "post-partisan-depression". Obama's lack of experience, and his hubris seem to be leading him down a "neo-lib" path. In other words it looks like "more of the same" -- and, when you utter those words after a regime like Chimpy's -- that ain't good.

By the way, doesn't it seem strange that not one of the folks who say our "slump" is over gives any credit to the TARP? We spend 700 BILLION $$$ bailing out the banks who got us in this mess, and not one person seems to think it had any effect. Those who supported it think we need some "real" stimulus". Those who opposed it are saying the crisis is over -- and, having opposed it, cannot give it any credit.

Does anyone else think it's ALL a con-game? Does anyone else think our economy has just been a Ponzi scheme?

I'm beginning to believe just those things. I also believe the collapse of this pyramid scheme will leave what is left of the middle class totally bankrupt. Then the corporate media, along with our rulers, and their wealthy overlords will convince us it is ALL our fault.

when are those of the far right wake up? When is the left going to wake up?

It isn't the immigrants. It isn't the "libtards". It isn't all about "guns", or "abortion" -- those are just things used to keep us all apart. Nothing changes -- if it isn't "the blacks", it's "teh gays". The right-wing-religious folks are being controlled by their leaders, controlled to the point they approve of stuff that is against their best interests. Too many on the left know NOTHING about so many of their natural allies in the "red states".

Classism still separates people who have more in common than they are willing to admit.

All in all, it looks good for our corporate masters.

Japan's jobless fill tent village in Tokyo park

This from the AP. I guess there really is a global recession. What surprised me was the simple fact Japan, a nation that has limited benefits for the unemployed, still seems to respond to the economic crisis better than many of our Republican Officials. Their response seems to consist of DENIAL. I guess, as long as they're not starving -- nobody is.


Saturday January 3, 1:21 am ET
By Yuri Kageyama, AP Business Writer
Japan's jobless in city park tent village move to government building

TOKYO (AP) -- A tent village set up in a Tokyo park for the country's growing number of jobless filled up so fast that it was moved Saturday to a government building to accommodate the overflow.

The government offered a ministry hall late Friday, responding to a request from volunteers, to house more than 250 unemployed and homeless people after the first comers quickly filled the tents, according to the shelter's Japanese-language Web site.


The homeless can stay in the building through Monday, and job counseling and other efforts are under way to place the people in other locations, it said.

The tent village that volunteers and unions opened on New Year's Eve highlights the serious social costs of the global recession for the world's second largest economy.

The government estimates 85,000 part-time workers will lose their jobs between October and March. Another 3,300 permanent employees are expected to become jobless over the same period.

Temporary workers have been the first to be fired in the latest wave of cutbacks as Japan's exports and company investments crashed after the U.S. financial crisis.

Temporary jobs at manufacturing were illegal before 2004, but today top companies, including Toyota Motor Corp. and Canon Inc., routinely rely on temporary staffing to adjust production to gyrating overseas demand.

Japanese Communist Party Executive Committee Chair Kazuo Shii, who visited the village, said the government needs to do more to help the unemployed.

"It is unforgivable that Japan's major companies have thrown so many workers out on the streets at the end of the year," he said.

For decades Japan promised lifetime employment at major companies, and government welfare programs for the jobless are still limited.

The tent village has also drawn some who have been needy for years.

Shigeru Kobayashi, 65, who has been unemployed four years, lives in the park.

"People talked about a recovery, but it never got good anyway," he said with a grin. "I'm unemployed. All I have is heart."

Tamotsu Chiba, 55, a theater producer and volunteer at the tent village, said he found the energy of the volunteers encouraging.

"There are so many different kinds of people here. This has given me a feeling of hope about Japan," he said.

Fresh Looks At Old Deals

This is copied directly from "When Giants Fall" --I think it needs wider release.

This is by the same Gentleman who writes "Financial Armageddon" - both the blog and the book.

Please refer back to the originals for further insight.

http://www.economicroadmap.com/

http://www.financialarmageddon.com/




New realities are forcing individuals and families to rethink priorities, reassess how they manage their finances and other affairs, and reevaluate personal and professional relationships. Owners and managers are also feeling compelled to take a good look at how they operate their businesses, figure out which parts to keep, alter, or shed, and decide which managers, employees, suppliers, and service providers are well suited to the changing circumstances.

By the same token, policymakers and political leaders are also under increasing pressure to reexamine and restructure goals, budgets, and strategic relationships in light of all that has occurred during the past 18 months. Among other things, that will lead to intense scrutiny of existing and prospective geopolitical ties, including treaty relationships with long-time partners.

Given the already clearly audible chorus of dissatisfaction in Mexico and in the United States over the 15-year old North American Free Trade Agreement, as noted in the following post by Kevin Gallagher and Timothy Wise at the Guardian's Comment Is Free blog, "Nafta's Unhappy Anniversary," I believe it is only a matter of time before enough people start wondering: What's the point?

For both the US and Mexico, Nafta has failed to deliver on its economic promises. It's time for it to be renegotiated

In Mexico, the fifteenth birthday is a special time, an ornate coming of age celebration – the quinceañera – complete with dancing and piñatas. On January 1, the North American Free Trade Agreement turns 15, but it does not seem like anyone in Mexico is going to throw any parties for the groundbreaking trade agreement.

Celebrations in Washington are likely to be muted as well. President-elect Barack Obama swept to victory on a platform critical of Nafta and similar trade agreements, and he will have a Congress that has continued to shift away from such free-trade policies.

Obama also promised to take a "time-out" on trade agreements while a thorough review of US trade policy is carried out. He should make good on that promise. And unlike the campaign, which focused exclusively on how these agreements have brought limited benefits for people in the US, the review should take a hard look at Mexico's experience as well. It is not a pretty picture.

In Washington, many people almost take it for granted that Mexico was the big winner from Nafta. After all, the Mexican government got exactly what it wanted from the agreement: exports to the US increased sevenfold, much of it in manufacturing, and foreign direct investment jumped to four times pre-Nafta levels. With inflation down and productivity up, the Mexican economy was ready for takeoff.

It didn't happen. The economy grew slowly – an annual rate of 1.6% per capita. This was low by historical standards. The economy grew 3.5% per year from 1960-79, under the widely criticised policies of "import substitution". And it was low by developing country standards. China, India and Brazil all vaulted ahead of Mexico, following a much less orthodox set of policies that would be illegal for Mexico under Nafta.

Slow growth means limited job creation, all the more so with US exports displacing "inefficient" domestic producers. Estimates vary, but Mexico probably gained about 600,000 jobs in the manufacturing sector since Nafta took effect, but the country lost at least two million in agriculture, as cheap imports of corn and other commodities flooded the newly liberalised market.

So Mexico saw a net loss of employment under Nafta, and this at a time when the country's baby boom has about one million young people entering the work force each year. No wonder an estimated half-million Mexicans make the increasingly perilous and militarised crossing to the US each year, double the migration rate before Nafta, which, remember, was promised to end the migration problem by allowing Mexico to "export goods, not people".

No wonder some Mexicans are calling for their own government to renegotiate Nafta on its fifteenth birthday. The wage gap with the US has gotten bigger, not smaller, with US wages nearly six times Mexico's. About half the population can't find formal employment. Poverty rates and inequality are down only slightly, in part because remittances from Mexicans who migrated to the US are up six-fold since Nafta took effect.

Nafta's defenders may be right to say that the agreement was a success for Mexico, if success is just about increasing trade and investment. No one can deny that Mexico received preferential access to the coveted US market and huge inflows of US capital. But those who care about economic development ask for – and were promised – more. They ask that economic and trade policies benefit the population at large. On this, Nafta has failed.

This has important implications for US trade policy, and for any developing country seeking to sign a trade agreement with the US. Nafta is the template for such agreements. If Mexico, with a 2,000-mile border with the US, a strong history of bilateral trade and trade preferences that meant something during what turned out to be the longest economic expansion in US history, didn't prosper from its trade agreement, other developing countries are not likely to either.

The incoming Obama administration should make good on its promises to review Nafta. Indeed, review US trade policy as a whole. And examine not only its impacts on US workers and farmers but its development impacts in Mexico.

Then let's start from scratch and fashion trade agreements that are worthy of grand celebrations on both sides of our borders.

HAPPY NEW YEAR

Jobless Claims

Remember that headline that showed jobless claims down for the last week -- they are "seasonally adjusted".

Claims fell from 586k the week before to 492k - a real drop.

But - but - but --- the raw numbers (Not Seasonally Adjusted - NSA)are rather different: initial claims are 507k, 629k, 716k, and for this week, 718k….

That's an increase of 211,000 in 4 weeks.

Oh well!