Housing Market: Here's an Amazing Statistic

Say there, how's YOUR recovery going? This from "Seeking Alpha" - please follow link to original for the rest of the story.
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Housing Market: Here's an Amazing Statistic


Earlier this week we have had data from both existing home sales and new home sales. Both have been abysmal.... and I'm not speaking in hyperbole. As I often say, focus on existing home sales because it is generally around 90% of the market - but currently up to 95% since new homes are simply so uncompetitive with so much distressed inventory on the market. That said, in one story I read on the new home sales figures yesterday an amazing statistic:

Sales are now just half the pace of 1963 -- even though there are 120 million more people in the United States now.


Again that speaks to new home sales, rather than the more important existing home sales but still astounding.

1963 population: 190M
Today: 310M

1963 new home sales: 560K
Current pace 2011: 250K
(Worst year ever was 2010 @ 323,000)

Whatever the case, the data is making certain pundits who did declare a housing bottom in 2009... and 2010... look a bit silly. I am sure they will go to their typical revisionist history and/or just repeat it again this year. Eventually they will be right and can claim credit. Indeed it is almost that time of year - spring/early summer buying season - when housing data ALWAYS picks up and the "it's a housing bottom" cadre will come to your friendly national business television station.

With that said we are getting closer to the median housing value I outlandishly proposed in late 2007 when the "housing prices cannot fall nationally" crowd was crowing exceptionally loud. [Dec 6, 2007: Analysis - What Should Median Home Prices be Today?] Unfortunately, our Fed head in chief was one of those believers. Why are we still talking about a housing problem?)..........